saeed moshiri; Habib Morovat; Farhad Fallahi; Mohammad Reza Asghari Oskoei; Meisam Doustizadeh
Abstract
We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase ...
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We develop an agent-based model to study the effects of the electricity market reform on the electricity prices, the power plants’ technology mix as well as their capacity utilization and profits. The reform’s main objective is to open the electricity market to more competition and increase the efficiency. The new wholesale electricity market will operate based on the one-day-ahead auctions organized by the independent system operator. We set up two scenarios in which the market clearing mechanism changes from the pay-as-bid to market clearing price (MCP) and the fuel subsidy to power plants will be removed. The effects of the two scenarios will be analyzed on the market prices, plant revenues, market shares, and power generating units’ capacities. The simulation results show that the electricity prices are higher during the peak load mainly due to the entry of the higher cost plants during those periods. Electricity prices are lower under the MCP scenario and higher under the fuel subsidy removal scenario, leading to lower and higher revenues for the power plants, respectively. The results also indicate that the market shares and the capacity utilization of the more efficient plants will increase under both scenarios.
Saeed Moshiri; Kamran Pakizeh; Manoochehr Dabirian; Abolfazl Jafari
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 74-55
Abstract
Investors in stock markets are concerned about the inflation effect on their returns. However, the impact varies based on investment horizons. Since investors have different attitudes and diverse investment horizons, studying the relationship between inflation and stock returns in different time ...
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Investors in stock markets are concerned about the inflation effect on their returns. However, the impact varies based on investment horizons. Since investors have different attitudes and diverse investment horizons, studying the relationship between inflation and stock returns in different time scales would have great implications for their investment. In this paper, we examine the Fisher hypothesis, which denotes a positive relationship between nominal stock return and inflation rate, using a wavelet multi-scaling method that decomposes a given time series on a scale-by-scale basis. The wavelet approach based on time-scale decomposition provides a valuable means of testing the Fisher hypothesis and resolves the problem of conflicting results in the literature. Our results show a negative relationship between inflation and the TSE returns in short-run horizon and a positive relationship in long-run horizon.
Mohammad Reza Ghadimi; Saeed Moshiri
Volume 4, Issue 12 , October 2002, , Pages 97-125
Abstract
Artificial neural networks(ANN) are flexible models used for data analyzing and Modeling non-linear relations.Most economic applications of the ANN models have been in financial markets. Only recently there have been same macroeconomic applications of ANN models. In this paper, we set up an ANN model ...
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Artificial neural networks(ANN) are flexible models used for data analyzing and Modeling non-linear relations.Most economic applications of the ANN models have been in financial markets. Only recently there have been same macroeconomic applications of ANN models. In this paper, we set up an ANN model to forecast Iranian Economic growth using a long data from 1315 to 1375. We used different inputs based on Economic growth models and time series forecasting models in the ANN model. The forecasting results are then compared with those of the economic and time series models. The results show that in most of the cases, the ANN model outperform other traditional forecasting models.
